MEMO: Stephanie Murphy Takes The Lead

TO: Interested Parties
FROM:  Brad Howard, Campaign Manager, Stephanie Murphy for Congress
DATE:  Friday, Oct. 14
SUBJECT:  FL-07 State of the Race

 

Stephanie Murphy Takes The Lead 

Strong Campaign by Murphy & Donald Trump’s Sinking Numbers Position Murphy for Victory

OVERVIEW

Businesswoman, educator and former national security specialist Stephanie Murphy is giving Congressman John Mica his toughest challenge in his 23-year career in Congress. And this week, a new poll shows that Murphy has taken a two-point lead, with room to grow. By all accounts, Murphy’s momentum is gaining, and she is well positioned for an upset on Election Day.

NEW POLL PUTS MURPHY IN THE LEAD

It is clear that Murphy, her powerful story, and her message of change, security, and equality are resonating with voters in this young, diverse district. Voters are also rejecting Donald Trump’s candidacy and are abandoning Congressman Mica – especially independent voters – because they view Mica’s partisanship and consistent support of Trump as troubling.

In a DCCC poll of 499 likely voters in Florida’s Seventh District conducted on Oct. 10, Stephanie Murphy leads Congressman John Mica by two points, 45% to 43%. Murphy also has increasing favorability and strong support among independent voters in the district, leading Mica by 18 points among them.

Further findings from the poll:

  • As more voters learn about Murphy, she has been able to turn an 18-point deficit (36% Murphy to 54% Mica) into a two-point lead (45% Murphy to 43% Mica) in just two short months. Murphy still has room to grow, considering that 50% of voters who are still undecided in the Congressional race plan to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race, compared to just 15% who plan to vote for Donald Trump.
  • Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 11-point lead over Donald Trump in the district (47% to 36%). Clinton leads by 22 points among registered independents.
  • Mica’s continued support of Trump is a liability. Fifty-one percent of voters say they are less likely to support Mica due to his support of Trump and just 30 percent say it makes them more likely to support Mica. Independent voters are especially uncomfortable with Mica’s support of Trump, with 62 percent of them saying it makes them less likely to support Mica.

ROLL CALL: JOHN MICA IS FIFTH MOST VULNERABLE HOUSE INCUMBENT IN THE COUNTRY

The House: 10 Most Vulnerable: “#5: Congressman John Mica:  This 12-term Republican hasn’t faced a serious election in decades, and Democrats didn’t even have a competitive challenger against him until late June. But with Stephanie Murphy now in the race, Mica finds himself on this list for the first time because he’s facing re-election in a heavily redistricted seat that’s more Democratic and at least 40 percent new to him. Republicans are concerned that he hasn’t invested the time or resources to introduce himself to new voters, while Democrats are treating this like a top pickup opportunity.” – [Roll Call, 10/11/2016]

RACE RATINGS

Experts Rating Last Updated
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up Oct. 13, 2016
Washington Post’s “The Fix” Toss-up Oct. 12, 2016
The Cook Political Report Toss-up Sept. 29, 2016
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report Toss-up/Tilt Republican Sept. 29, 2016

 

“Set against a backdrop of redistricting, national tragedy, demographic change and hotly contested presidential race, FL-07 is exactly the type of district that could make the difference between Democrats picking up a modest (5-10) or larger (10-20) number of House seats on Election Night. It also happens to feature the most jarring contrast between an incumbent and a challenger in the country. This race moves to the Toss Up column.” [The Cook Political Report, 9/29/2016]

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